The Nightly Build.
Monday, July 13, 202641 min read
the-paper

A causal algorithm inferred the causes of child PTSD from data no one could randomize

Run over 1,354 maltreated children in a decades-old cohort, causal discovery named four direct causes of posttraumatic stress at age 8, and the same run shows which of them a second study should expect to lose.

13 min read8 sources
the-ledger

AB InBev grew by selling less beer for more money

Volumes shrink a little every year, but a halved dividend, roughly $47 billion of debt repaid and relentless price and mix have turned a low-growth giant into a cash-return machine that now rides on pricing power.

10 min read10 sources
Current Affairs · Unbiased

Is Social Media a Primary Cause of the Youth Mental-Health Crisis?

Australia's world-first under-16 ban has forced a decade-old research dispute into law: whether social media is driving the rise in adolescent depression and anxiety, or only tracking a crisis whose real causes lie elsewhere.

10 min read10 sources
the-world

The Strait of Hormuz is open, and nearly empty

Traffic through the disputed strait has fallen to a handful of ships a day even as Brent nears $79, a global study redraws dementia's risk map by country, and physicists reproduce a black hole's energy trick on a benchtop.

5 min read6 sources
the-wire

The fine print did the work tonight

A long-context method that helps only when the model picks its own evidence spans, an initialization trick that buys no accuracy at all, Simon Willison on the one job an AI agent cannot hold, and a threatened open-weights ban that so far exists only as a forecast.

3 min read6 sources